Comparisons
 between US and:

vehicle rate

dist. rate

Background and more

information in 2004 book

Click for info on

Traffic Safety

GB

Canada

Australia

GB

Copyright 2004 by Leonard Evans

This calculation provides the value in Table 15-7, p.388, of Traffic Safety that 221,413 additional Americans died because US failed to match Canadian safety performance

US versus Canada traffic fatalities per thousand registered vehicles (vehicle rate)

    USA Canada     
year   traffic fatalities vehicles  (thous) fatalities per thou vehicles traffic fatalities vehicles  (thous) fatalities per thou vehicles percent change from 1979        A      B C
1979   51,093 144,317 0.354  5,863 13,329

0.440  

        0.354 51,093       
1980   51,091 146,845 0.348  5,461 13,661

0.400  

-9.1       0.322 47,247

3,844 

1981   49,301 149,330 0.330  5,383 13,836

0.389 

-11.6       0.313 46,761

2,540 

1982   43,945 151,148 0.291  4,169 14,310

0.291 

-33.8       0.234 35,442

8,503 

1983   42,589 153,830 0.277  4,216 14,622

0.288 

-34.5       0.232 35,699

6,890 

1984   44,257 158,900 0.279  4,120 14,407

0.286 

-35.0       0.230 36,574

7,683 

1985   43,825 166,047 0.264  4,364 14,818

0.295 

-33.0       0.237 39,359

4,466 

1986   46,087 168,545 0.273  4,068 15,336

0.265 

-39.7       0.213 35,984

10,103 

1987   46,390 172,750 0.269  4,286 15,793

0.271 

-38.3       0.218 37,734

8,656 

1988   47,087 177,455 0.265  4,154 16,336

0.254 

-42.2       0.205 36,319

10,768 

1989   45,582 181,165 0.252  4,246 16,720

0.254 

-42.3       0.204 37,029

8,553 

1990   44,599 184,275 0.242  3,965 16,981

0.233 

-46.9       0.188 34,631

9,968 

1991   41,508 186,370 0.223  3,691 16,444

0.224 

-49.0       0.181 33,669

7,839 

1992   39,250 184,938 0.212  3,500 16,581

0.211 

-52.0       0.170 31,420

7,830 

1993   40,150 188,350 0.213  3,614 16,717

0.216 

-50.9       0.174 32,773

7,377 

1994   40,716 192,497 0.212  3,260 16,971

0.192 

-56.3       0.155 29,762

10,954 

1995   41,817 197,065 0.212  3,351 17,047

0.197 

-55.3       0.158 31,179

10,638 

1996   42,065 201,631 0.209  3,091 17,183

0.180 

-59.1       0.145 29,193

12,872 

1997   42,013 203,568 0.206  3,064 17,518

0.175 

-60.2       0.141 28,657

13,356 

1998   41,501 208,076 0.199  2,949 17,988

0.164 

-62.7       0.132 27,456

14,045 

1999   41,717 212,685 0.196  2,985 17,534

0.170 

-61.3       0.137 29,142

12,575 

2000   41,945 217,028 0.193  2,926 17,882

0.164 

-62.8       0.132 28,582

13,363 

2001   42,196 221,230 0.191  2,778 18,102

0.153 

-65.1       0.124 27,326

14,870 

2002   42,815 224,974 0.190  2,936 18,271

0.161 

-63.5       0.129 29,097

13,718 

*

            total number of fewer US fatalities if US rate had declined in step with Canadian rate

221,413

A: what US rate would have been if it had declined by same percent as Canadian rate

B: what US fatalities would have been for US vehicle fleet if vehicle rate had been as in column A

C: the number of US fatalities prevented if US rate had declined in step with Canadian rate

* If US rate changes had matched those in Canada, 13,718 fewer Americans would have been killed in 2002.

   In 2002, US fatalities would have been 29,097 rather than the observed 42,815.